Texas data centre pause hits AI-focused bitcoin miners
Bernstein cut price targets on seven AI-pivoted bitcoin miners by 35% to 54% after Texas elected a governor who wants data centre approvals kept on hold.
The facts
- According to Unchained, Texas elected Gina Hinojosa governor on Tuesday after she promised to hold data centre approvals until the legislature writes new rules.
- Governor Greg Abbott had already paused new approvals. He ordered an audit of data centres in ERCOT's queue in August and told the environmental regulator to halt permits on Sept. 21. The audit report is due around Dec. 10.
- Bernstein cut price targets on seven miners by 35% to 54% on Nov. 4, citing tighter financing and Texas uncertainty. By Unchained's count, Riot's fell 49%, TeraWulf's 44% and IREN's 45%.
- Unchained says Cipher fell 20% on Nov. 4 while the Nasdaq-100 rose about 1%. Riot rose 10% on lease news. Hinojosa takes office Jan. 19 and the legislative session runs to May 31.
Case notes · Danny's take
Why it matters
These miners are valued on megawatts, but a pause does not hit every megawatt equally. It bites on approvals not yet granted: a grid classification, a permit, a tenant still to be signed. Bernstein applied one lower multiple across the whole group, and Unchained points out that miners with approved power and miners still waiting are very different animals. A falling price tells you the market is scared. It doesn't tell you who is actually exposed.
For traders
Don't trade the headline. Check each miner's filings for how much leased capacity is fully approved and how much still waits on a state permit or the grid operator. Watch the Dec. 10 audit report, Jan. 19 and the end of the legislative session, and size down if you are using leverage on news-driven candles.
For builders
If you build or finance data centre capacity in Texas, find out which approvals you still need before any rule change lands. Unchained flags environmental permits and the delivery clocks in tenant leases as risks that can reach even approved campuses.
Not financial advice. Do your own investigation.
This story was summarised with AI from Unchained's reporting and checked against our editorial policy. Danny's take reflects his views. Disclaimer.
Danny Walter
Founder of Moon Republic, Volt Terminal and Moon Republic Academy. Author of The Market Is a Crime Scene and After the Applause.