TD Cowen says Democratic sweep closes door on Clarity Act
TD Cowen says the Democratic sweep of Congress blocks crypto market structure law for two years, but the SEC and CFTC can still act.
The facts
- According to Bitcoin Magazine, TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg says the Democratic sweep closes the door on crypto market structure law like the Clarity Act for the next two years.
- The bill passed the House in July 2025 and failed a Senate cloture vote 49-50 in September. It dies on Jan. 3 unless the lame-duck session revives it.
- Seiberg says the election will not stop regulators pursuing de-regulatory agendas, and he expects the SEC and CFTC to stay active on crypto, prediction markets and perps.
- He says Democratic investigations of the Trump family's crypto ventures, including World Liberty Financial, may make a bill the industry could back impossible to advance. This is an analyst view, not a confirmed outcome.
Case notes · Danny's take
Why it matters
The question has changed. It is no longer when a crypto market structure bill passes. It is whether any bill the industry wants can pass at all. More than $170 million in super PAC spending did not buy the Congress it was meant to buy. That's not a setback in timing. That's a lesson in what money can and can't do. Meanwhile the real rulemaking may keep moving through the agencies, not Congress.
For traders
Don't trade the headline. Watch the lame-duck session for any move to revive the bill before Jan. 3, and watch SEC and CFTC actions, since the note says they keep going. The CME lawsuit over the perps approval is the item the note calls the live threat to that agency path. The note also says bitcoin has traded with the Nasdaq all autumn, so macro risks like the debt ceiling matter too.
For builders
Plan as if no federal market structure law arrives soon. Agency guidance and approvals look like the route that is still open, so build for compliance under existing rules. Keep an eye on the CME lawsuit, because it could change that route.
Not financial advice. Do your own investigation.
This story was summarised with AI from Bitcoin Magazine's reporting and checked against our editorial policy. Danny's take reflects his views. Disclaimer.
Danny Walter
Founder of Moon Republic, Volt Terminal and Moon Republic Academy. Author of The Market Is a Crime Scene and After the Applause.